11/5/2024 United Kingdom (International Christian Concern) — Government officials in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Canada announced a set of coordinated sanctions against Myanmar’s military last week.
This latest round of sanctions aims to restrict the junta’s ability to conduct airstrikes against the country’s civilian population by limiting suppliers of aviation fuel and equipment to the military, which is locally known as the Tatmadaw.
As described by a statement announcing the new sanctions, “U.K. action will help to constrain the Myanmar military’s ability to conduct airstrikes on civilians, of which amount to gross human rights violations.”
While these sanctions are designed to restrict the Tatmadaw, they are far from the first sanctions imposed since the Tatmadaw seized power in 2021. The U.K. has taken part in many previous sanctions, including efforts to limit the Tatmadaw’s aviation fuel supply in early 2023 and access to military supplies in October 2023. Previous efforts have left loopholes or workarounds exploited by the junta, its suppliers, and its supporters in China, Russia, and elsewhere.
Still, the latest sanctions come at a crucial juncture in the struggle between the junta and pro-democracy forces in the country. While the Tatmadaw’s war against the country’s ethnoreligious minorities stretches back decades, the military conducted more airstrikes in August than in any previous month on record, making sanctions on its aviation sector especially timely.
“These sanctions will increase pressure on the Myanmar military,” said Britain’s minister for the Indo-Pacific, Catherine West, in the statement announcing the sanctions. “The U.K. remains steadfast in our support for the Myanmar people and their aspirations for a peaceful and democratic future.”
Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.
In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups — such as the Chin — are more than 90% Christian. Rakhine state contains a large Muslim Rohingya population against whom the junta continues to wage genocide. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for non-Buddhists across the country.
Despite support from Russia and China, the Tatmadaw is suffering from a series of battlefield setbacks stretching back to October 2023, when a coalition of ethnoreligious minorities from around the country launched a coordinated offensive against key military strongholds. In the year since, the coalition has wrested control of several key border towns from the military and killed or captured thousands of government soldiers, including high-ranking officers.
In August, the coalition captured the city of Lashio, a major regional hub for the Tatmadaw and home to its Northeastern Command. With this loss, the Tatmadaw is largely confined to the country’s center, surrounded by opposition forces to the west, north, and east.
Experts believe that Myanmar’s military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of tens of thousands of personnel through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.
In response to its shrinking ranks, the Myanmar government announced in February that it would begin national conscription. According to an official announcement, the draft applies to all men aged 18 to 35 and all women aged 18 to 27 and can extend for up to five years.
Thousands of young people attempted to flee the country after the announcement. Still, many have been forced to join the military despite personal and moral objections to helping the Tatmadaw perpetuate the world’s longest ongoing civil war.
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